This morning I paid just over $6 for my breakfast of a bagel with veggie light cream cheese and can of ice tea. That seemed like a lot for pretty small breakfast.

I asked Steve, the breakfast shop manager about the sudden increase in his menu and without even blinking he blamed it on the increased cost of petroleum, a reduction of supply and the current craze of ethanol production.

According to Steve, much of our homegrown corn is going into the production of ethanol, which means we have less corn to use for such vital food ingredients as high fructose corn syrup (HFCS). Meanwhile, the cost of transporting the raw bagel-making ingredients to our local bagel shops just keeps going through the roof.

To use a very over-used analogy, at just over $6 for a bagel breakfast, we're seeing the results of a perfect storm of devastating bagel economics. For me this perfect bagel storm means a lot more cereal in my future.

Unfortunately, I can't help but feel that we're also seeing the same storm clouds gather over my beloved sport of triathlon.

As of May 5, 2008, United Airlines will start charging $100 to transport a bike one way. This means at $200 to ship a bike both ways, on many cheaper roundtrip flights, it could now be more expensive to ship your bike then yourself.

And don't even think about the cost of buying/renting a bike transport box, the need to rent a minivan to fit the huge box once your arrive at your race and perhaps the cost of having your bike professionally assembled and/or dissembled. The total cost of just getting your bike to a race and back could easily be as much as $500 per race.

If you are considering racing a U.S. Ironman next year, you'll be happy to learn that starting this year, you'll pretty much have to travel to the race to sign-up for the following year … that is if you want to be assured of getting into the race.

The new North America Sports Ironman registration policy basically states that: Athletes resisted for the current year's IM can register the day BEFORE the race. Athletes who register on site can register the day after the race but before online registration opens... and whatever slots (if any) are left become available online beginning at noon the day after the race. Basically, unless you happen to have a boatload of frequent flyer miles, or work for an airline, you'll have to hope that you can get into your dream race online after everybody at the race has signed up.

But let's stay positive and imagine that you will be driving to your next race. I mean, how much can it cost to drive you and your bike, sherpa and friends and family to your next race?

Or, come to think of it, how much can it cost to drive to your favorite swimming hole or running trail this summer to train? At $4 per gallon … it’ll cost plenty. And let's not kid ourselves. The cost of gas will easily hit $4 per gallon this summer … if we're lucky. If we're not lucky, it will quickly exceed that bench mark.

I don't see the Chinese cutting back and returning to their old ways of lives. There are several billion happy Chinese who all want the same thing we have, two SUVs in every garage, a Harley for the weekend, a jet ski at the summerhouse, an RV to travel to Mongolia and cheap airfare to Hong Kong. Last time I checked the fine residents of Beijing were registering something like 6,000 new cars a minute. OK, maybe not a minute but certainly a week. And all of those cars use gas, and that means that when you have a limited supply, oil prices, like bagels, have only one way to go. To the moon, Alice.

An old friend of mine used to work for HBO. After work, we would meet up for a drink and he liked to brag that in difficult economic times, cable television was the last bill that people would stop paying. In other words, consumers would go without many necessities in life as long as they had their HBO.

Do you think the same can be said about triathlon?

What's more important to you?

Would you rather watch HBO or register for your next race?

You are absolutely correct—this not may not be a fair question. But perhaps the next questions are more to the point:

How would you rather spend your limited race budget? On a $25 entry to a 10km local run? On a $25 entry to a local swim meet? On a $25 entry to a local bike time trial? On a $90 entry to a local marathon? On a $90 entry to a local Olympic-distance triathlon? Or, on a $530 entry (including registration fees) to a faraway Ironman?

As I sit here writing these words, I see the dark storm dark clouds gathering on the horizon. I think back just a few years to the halcyon days of the sport when Lance Armstrong was rumored to be taking up triathlon. I think to the days of wine and roses, or was it Gatorade and ClifBars, when triathlon was "the bomb" the "it," the up-and-coming sport.

But now I see the darkening economic skies and I wonder if the sport of triathlon will be more like HBO, or more like my bagel, when the skies open up and the rain and lightning send us all looking for shelter.

Roman Mica is an amateur Clydesdale triathlete who lives and races in Boulder, Colorado, and has his own blog, EverymanTri.com. He is also the founder of the team raceAthlete www.B-FitB-Day.com Challenge. His new book entitled No Seriously, My Training Starts Tomorrow: The Everyman's Guide to IRONFIT Swimming, Cycling & Running was just published and is available on Amazon.